Chamara Kapugedera's six off the final ball saw Sri Lanka to a dramatic win after man-of-the-match Angelo Mathews and captain Kumar Sangakkara both made 46 to revive the innings after a top-order collapse.
If Australia beat hosts the West Indies in the day's second and final Group F match, also here at Beausejour, Sri Lanka will go through to the last four. And even if the Aussies are defeated, they would have to lose by 24 runs for the West Indies to get in ahead of 2009 beaten finalists Sri Lanka.
India - who lost all their Super Eights matches - had to win by at least 20 runs to keep their own slim semi-final hopes alive. Having made 163 for five, that meant restricting Sri Lanka to 143 or under.
But their hopes of doing just that ended when Kapugedera struck a Vinay Kumar full toss for six off the penultimate ball of the 19th over. Kapugedera repeated the dose next ball and Sri Lanka needed 13 to win off the last over.
Mathews put them in sight by smashing the first ball of the 20th over, from left-arm quick Ashish Nehra for six. But he was run out off the fifth ball going for a tight single by bowler Nehra's direct hit, having faced 37 balls with three sixes and two fours. However, with three needed off the last ball, Kapugedera carved Nehra over cover for six to finish on 37 not out.
"I had to give a good performance with the bat," Mathews said. "I'm glad I did it at the right time." Sri Lanka were rocked by the early loss of star batsmen Mahela Jayawardene and Sanath Jayasuriya for a combined total of just four.
"You never want to lose guys early, especially Mahela, who is in top form," Sangakkara said. "But (Tillakaratne) Dilshan got the momentum back for us and we talk about how capable our younger players are and they have shown how they can handle the pressure. Mathews and Kapugedera are going to be around for a long time."
Jayawardene's previous scores this tournament were 81, 101, 98 not out and nine. But he was out third ball for four when he nicked a good length delivery from Nehra and was caught at slip by Yusuf Pathan. Veteran left-hander Jayasuriya was out for a duck when he pulled Vinay Kumar straight to Dinesh Karthik at deep midwicket.
Dilshan, player of the tournament at last year's World Twenty20 in England, made 33 at better than a run-a-ball before he swung Pathan to Yuvraj Singh at deep backward square.
But Sangakkara hit back with a 33-ball innings featuring three sixes and two fours before he was bowled middle stump missing a cut shot against Kumar. Sangakkara's exit left Sri Lanka 105 for four in the 15th over.
Kapugedara was given a reprieve on seven when, looking to guide Nehra through third man he edged behind but a diving Mahendra Singh Dhoni, India's captain and wicketkeeper, couldn't hold the one-handed chance.
Suresh Raina top scored with 63 for India on the ground where he made a century against South Africa earlier in the tournament. India were well-placed for a big score at 90 for one at the halfway stage but Sri Lanka, led by unorthodox quick Lasith Malinga (two for 25), restricted them to just 73 runs from the second 10 overs.
"I think the execution of plans from their bowlers was very good, even with set batsmen we couldn't score freely," Dhoni said. "Overall, batting is our strength and we should have done better. We didn't perform to our potential. The last four to five overs they bowled really restricted us. We need to improve in quite a few areas."
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